On Sunday, 59 million Germans were eligible to vote for a new parliament. The snap election had become necessary after the breakup of the last government in November, with the following campaign centered around the German economy, which has been in a deep recession for a while. Another key issue was immigration, with the country being rocked by several terrorist attacks during the campaign. Almost all were carried out by asylum seekers from Syria and Afghanistan, some of whom had been scheduled to be deported.
So, how did the election play out? Here are five key takeaways from the vote.
A Conservative victory- but it could have been bigger
First things first- the Conservatives have won this election, and their chairman Friedrich Merz will most likely be Germany’s next chancellor. Merz comes in at almost 30%, well in front of all other parties, and will have a strong mandate to govern: it is not hard to see why. Only 16% of Germans were happy with the last government, and as the biggest opposition party, the Conservatives offered a change. Merz thus ran a campaign heavily focused on his economic expertise.
Yet, simply describing this as a Conservative win does not tell the whole story. It is the second lowest election result in the party’s history, a far cry from the 41% Merz’s predecessor Angela Merkel achieved in 2013. Despite the left-wing government’s incredibly low approval ratings, the Conservatives have only gained about 4% since the last election.Part of the reason is Friedrich Merz’s low approval ratings, as many Germans perceive him as impulsive and old-fashioned. He has also shifted his party to the right, calling for stricter immigration rules amidst the recent terrorist attacks, vowing not to leave the contentious immigration topic to far-right AfD. When elected chairman of the Conservatives, Merz had promised he would “cut AfD in half” at the election. But that did not happen.
Instead, AfD has doubled its share of the vote despite Merz’s tough immigration stances. Voters did not really buy into the Conservatives’ new policies, instead staying loyal to the anti-immigration original, AfD. Even worse, Merz lost votes to the left, as many centrist voters did not appreciate his right-wing rhetoric.
The far-right surge, but have no shot at power
Similar to the Conservatives, the circumstances of this election could hardly have been more in the far-right AfD’s favour. The party profited from the left-wing government’s disastrous approval ratings and the struggling economy, offering radical solutions like a full walk-back on renewable energy, ending support for Ukraine and leaving the EU.
AfD’s prime topic, immigration, also came to the forefront amidst the recent terrorist attacks, with the party being quick to declare that their immigration policies would have prevented all of the attacks. Globally, Elon Musk’s endorsement was notable, with the richest man on earth promoting the party’s content and calling on Germans to vote AfD.
Consequently, AfD had a very good election. Doubling their share of the vote to 20%, the party has finished in second place. Since WWII, every German election has seen the two “People’s Parties”, Conservatives and Social Democrats battle out who comes first and second. AfD have shaken up that dynamic- they have become a “People’s Party”. Despite the Conservatives moving to the right on immigration to crush AfD, the party has hardly lost votes to them, either.
Yet, some inside AfD are disappointed. In an election that seemed so perfectly laid out for them, AfD failed to reach their goal of 25%, which would have enabled the right-wingers to block constitutional amendments and lead government audits and investigations. And, despite party chairwoman Weidel saying she is ready to work with the Conservatives on election night, the party knows they will be in opposition until the next election, as the Conservatives have ruled out any cooperation. AfD’s plan of achieving so many votes that a government without them is impossible has failed- and there are rumours some in the party are calling for a change of leadership.
Germany’s Social Democrats are shattered- and will have to regroup
While both the Conservatives and AfD have celebrated gains, one does not have to look far to see where those votes have come from. Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats, who won the last election, have seen the lowest result in their history, achieving just 16% of the vote. This humiliating result is the people’s verdict on Scholz’s government, which failed to lead the country out of recession and was consumed by infighting. Scholz has already said he will retire from front-row politics.
Many Social Democrats wonder why they did not field another candidate. Boris Pistorius, defence minister under Scholz, has been Germany’s most popular politician for a while now, becoming more prominent internationally after delivering an immediate rebuttal to JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference. Pistorius, known as a centrist big on supporting Ukraine, is favoured by many to become the party’s next leader, and lead them back to the top.
Germany moved to the right – but also to the far left
Possibly the biggest surprise of the election is socialist party “Die Linke”. Only making it into parliament because of a technicality at the last election, the party is now at 8%, and will likely gain even more seats, as they are set to win several key Eastern German constituencies.
This is surprising to many, as the election campaign was marked by a general shift to the right, with AfD gaining traction and the Conservatives toughening up on immigration. Yet, the Socialists, who are against any form of border controls and reject deportations entirely, did well, most notably with young people, coming first amongst under 25-year-olds. The party ran a successful social media campaign, focused on bringing down the cost of living, while reinforcing classic socialist narratives of taxing the rich and “abolishing billionaires”. The new German parliament will thus have a strong far right, but also a sizable far left.
A divisive election- but most likely a centrist government
This election has seen a timid Conservative win, a far-right surge, a far-left comeback and a shattered centre-left. Yet, the outcome of what has arguably been the most divisive election Germany has ever had will most likely be a government that is not divisive at all. Friedrich Merz has finished first, and he has started talks to form a coalition with the weakened Social Democrats.
This so-called “Great Coalition”, commonly known as “Groko”, has governed Germany throughout much of its history. The two parties agree on many things, such as the need for economic reforms and robust support for Ukraine. As the Social Democrats disagree with some of his immigration stances, Merz signalled on Monday that he was willing to walk back on his more radical proposals, such as closing German borders entirely.
