The chairman of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) had comfortably won the most votes in September’s election, but was sidelined. Kickl would have needed at least one coalition partner to form a government, yet all other parties, including the Conservatives, refused to work with him.
Instead, Conservative chairman and chancellor Karl Nehammer had tried to form a three-way coalition between his Conservatives, the Liberal Party, and the Social Democrats for months. This weekend the talks broke down, Nehammer resigned, and the Conservatives declared they would now be open to joining a Kickl coalition. Talks will be held this week, and it is not unlikely the two parties will soon form Austria’s next government.
The cooperation itself would not be unprecedented: On a federal level, the right-wingers have been the junior partner in a government five times, mostly with the Conservatives. The most recent Conservative-FPÖ government ended in 2019, during which Kickl was interior minister. But now, for the first time, the right-wingers could actually lead a federal government, with Kickl as chancellor. That would likely have a significant impact, both domestically and abroad.
At home, his opponents say Kickl has been fond of right-wing extremism and conspiracy theories. He has pushed the idea of mass deportations of foreigners, tried to ban headscarves, and is close to the “Identitäre Bewegung”, a group classed as right-wing extremist in Austria. During the Covid-19 Pandemic, Kickl accused the World Health Organization of establishing a “health dictatorship”, and he has repeatedly said that there are no right-wing extremists in Austria. Asked about Austria’s fascist past, Kickl said the SS “was not to be found entirely guilty” of war crimes. When he was minister of the interior, Kickl’s police force raided the Austrian secret service, and he is accused of having officers destroy files on right-wing extremism that would have damaged his party.
On foreign policy, Kickl has long had to fend off allegations of being pro-Russia. He is an opponent of EU sanctions against the country, also proposing Austria should stop supporting Ukraine, as well as wanting to leave NATO defense programs such as “Skyshield”. When Kickl was minister of the interior, other European countries stopped sharing intelligence with Austria after one of Kickl’s closest affiliates leaked information to Russia. German politician Roderich Kiesewetter called Kickl and his party a “Russian Trojan Horse in the middle of Europe” in a recent interview, and former Austrian minister of the interior Gerhard Karner described him as a “walking security risk.”
The FPÖ are also critical of the EU, and Kickl has openly spoken of Austria leaving the union. He has been described as an “anti-EU chancellor”, and is well connected with like-minded leaders in Europe. The Austrian has referred to Hungarian President Victor Orbán as his “political idol” and the pair have worked together closely. Kickl’s relationship with Slovakian president Robert Fico is reportedly similarly good.
Last year, Kickl joined Orbán and then Czech president Andrej Babiš in presenting an EU-sceptic “Patriotic Manifesto” for Europe in Vienna.
FPÖ has also strengthened its links to the German far-right party AfD under Kickl. AfD call themselves FPÖ’s “sister party”, and are polling similarly well to the Austrians in Germany. Following his idol Orbán, Kickl has also positioned himself as one of the only Trump supporters in Austrian politics. He has compared Trump’s anti-establishment messaging to his own campaign, and often underlined ideological similarities.
With Kickl, the Alliance of right-wing, Russia-friendly, Trump-aligned populists in the EU would thus certainly gain a new, powerful member. Like Hungary and Slovakia, Austria has a seat in the European Council, which means Kickl could veto important legislation like Orbán has done in the past, paralyzing the Union. Or, he could have Austria leave the EU entirely.
If Kickl manages to actually form the government, his first confrontation with the EU could come very soon. Austria has to send a budget plan to Brussels on the 21st of January, to avoid the EU opening a deficit procedure against them. Kickl has said he is against any involvement of the EU in Austrian financial affairs, but refusing to cooperate in the procedure would break international law and incur sanctions from Brussels. Kickl’s idol, Victor Orban, has just made it through a similar confrontation with the Union, and it is likely he and Fico would back their new friend up.
However, Kickl will not be able to reign as free as he may like, even if he becomes chancellor. Austrian President Alexander van der Bellen has said he will make sure a Kickl government respects the separation of powers and leaves the country’s EU membership untouched. Kickl cannot get rid of the president, but van der Bellen can veto Kickl’s laws and fire his ministers. When Kickl was minister of the interior, he also had issues getting laws past the judiciary, as courts for example struck down his headscarf ban as unconstitutional.
And like his colleague Giorgia Meloni on the other side of the Alps, Kickl may adopt a more timid approach towards the EU once he is in office, for economic reasons. The Austrian economy is in recession, and the country has a 6 billion Euro hole in its national budget. As Kickl has vowed to not raise taxes, he cannot really afford to lose out on EU subsidies, or even pay penalties.
But first of all, Herbert Kickl now has to form the government- wherever he may then lead it.
