During talks held in Doha, a Qatari spokesman said on Tuesday that the two sides were “very close” to a deal. Hamas representatives had already accepted a draft, while the Israelis were still finalizing details. That draft was not published, but the Associated Press obtained a copy on Tuesday evening. It details a plan consisting of two stages.
Crucial to the first stage, set to take 42 days, will be a hostage deal. Hamas will free 33 Israeli hostages captured in the October 7th attacks, reportedly women, children, men over the age of 50, and those who are wounded and sick. This includes female soldiers. The two sides have agreed for Hamas to release seven captives a week during the first stage, until all living women, children and older people still held in Gaza are freed.
For every civilian hostage released by Hamas, the Israeli government will then free 30 to 50 Palestinians, mostly women, children and elderly people. For every female soldier released by Hamas, the Israelis will set free 50 Palestinian prisoners- with limitations. Palestinians serving time for deadly attacks on Israelis are to be included, but individuals responsible for the October 7th attacks will not be released.
Hostages’ families protest (Flickr/ Amir Appel)
During this exchange, the Israeli military would retreat from most of the Gaza Strip, except a buffer zone on Gaza’s border with Israel, and the Philadelphi corridor, which forms the border between Gaza and Egypt. The plan also entails the re-opening of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, to allow desperately needed foreign aid to enter. The agreement then also allows the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza.
The draft ceasefire agreement finally outlines what comes after the first 42-day stage, stating all remaining hostages are to be released in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Negotiations on how exactly this second stage is going to look will resume during the first one. If this deal is agreed on, however, its first stage would bring peace to Gaza for the first time since October 7th.
The plan itself has been around for a while, with US President Biden presenting a peace resolution in May 2024, whose three stages almost mirror the current deal. Israel and Hamas have negotiated variations of that plan ever since Biden unveiled it, with talks repeatedly breaking down. So why do they seem ready to agree on it now?
For many, Benjamin Netanyahu was long the main hindrance to peace talks. The Israeli president has had a corruption trial and inquiries over the national security failure on October 7th looming over him: “It was in Netanyahu’s interest to prolong the war, because as long as it goes on there will be no call for accountability,” Oliver McTernan, director of conflict resolution charity Forward Thinking, told the BBC. Additionally, right-wing members of Netanyahu’s government had threatened to resign if he would accept a deal, possibly collapsing his government.
But with pro-ceasefire protests across Israel in the last few weeks, and recent polls showing 72% of Israelis supporting a deal, Netanyahu may have had to give into the pressure. He is also not risking the collapse of his government anymore, having recently added a new party into his coalition, which now has a comfortable majority even if the far right back out.
Another reason for Netanyahu to soften his position may have been Donald Trump. Keen to start off his tenure in the White House with a foreign policy success, Trump is reported to have pressured Netanyahu to enter negotiations, and the Israeli president may wait for Trump’s first day in office to announce he has accepted the deal.
Hamas was also under increasing pressure to enter ceasefire talks. Decimated by relentless Israeli airstrikes and ground operations, and with its allies Hezbollah and Iran also struggling, Hamas is weakened. Internally, the group has had to fend off criminal gangs in Gaza itself, and confront growing internal friction with Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas. Israeli envoys have also said the group has been more open to negotiations after the death of its leader Yahya Sinwar, who the Israelis say categorically blocked any kind of hostage deal.
For both sides, the ceasefire could thus come at a convenient time. But Qatari mediators say the negotiations could still fail- the plan has its weak points.
Firstly, the hostage exchange, the basis of the entire deal, is in question. In their tunnel system below Gaza, Hamas have lost track of where some Israeli hostages are, and whether they are still alive. Multiple Israelis are reportedly also held by other Islamist groups and not by Hamas, making organized releases difficult. The ceasefire could fail in the very first stage, simply because Hamas cannot produce the 33 hostages.
Another issue is that Israeli representatives have maintained they need to have a basis in Gaza itself to make sure Hamas does not rearm. The current draft would not allow that, but it has been discussed Israel may be allowed to have access to the crucial Netzarim corridor in Gaza during the first stage, allowing it to control the strip better. However, Hamas still needs to agree to this.
But even if all issues within the first stage are resolved, the second one might prove the most difficult. With the draft vaguely stating that all remaining hostages have to be released and Israel has to fully retreat from Gaza, both sides appear deadlocked. Hamas has said it will not release all hostages until Israel has left Gaza entirely, while Israeli representatives say they will not leave Gaza before all their hostages are home, and they have guarantees Hamas does not take power there again.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, US foreign secretary Anthony Blinken provided a possible solution, saying the international community should come together in an “international stabilization and security effort”. Blinken also stated some international partners had agreed to contribute troops to maintain order in a self-governing Gaza.
Despite this, Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly only signaled his support for the first stage of the ceasefire, not the second one. The two sides resuming the hostilities after the first phase is not unlikely. A temporary ceasefire may be close, but long-term peace could be as far as ever.