After Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats dissolved his left-wing government in November last year, Germany’s political parties have geared up for this election, set on the 23rd of February- in a country in crisis. Germany’s economy is in recession, with its manufacturing industry struggling with high energy costs and bureaucracy. Unemployment is rising, and Germans are still shaken after a terrorist attack on a Christmas market in the city of Magdeburg just before the holidays, and a stabbing in southern Germany in January.
Hence, it is no surprise that recent polls indicate most Germans want a change in government. Friedrich Merz and his Conservatives are polling at 30%, far ahead of all other parties. The 69-year-old former Blackrock executive has made economic reforms the bedrock of his campaign, while also pushing for more German support for Ukraine.
However, he has also moved the Conservatives further to the right, advocating for tougher immigration rules, and making headlines with controversial statements, for instance accusing immigrants of “stealing German’s dentist appointments”, and saying Ukrainian war refugees were engaging in “benefits tourism” while in Germany. He has apologized for some of these quotes. Merz’s supporters say he is reclaiming ground on the right his long-time rival Angela Merkel gave up when she led the Conservatives, while others accuse Merz of simply adopting talking points of the party polling right behind him: AfD.
Right-wing AfD are riding a historic wave of support, polling at 20%, double what they achieved at the last election in 2021. Party leader Alice Weidel has made AfD the second strongest force in German politics, currently predicted to win every single constituency in Eastern Germany. Weidel, a former business consultant who lives in Switzerland with her wife, has been described as “Germany’s Georgia Meloni”, having given AfD a more progressive image, while not abandoning social conservatism, right-wing economic policies, and a hard-right stance on immigration.
AfD are still in favour of leaving the EU, and against any sort of German support for Ukraine. The party’s youth organization was just disbanded after the Secret Service classified it as right-wing extremist, and Björn Höcke, convicted last year for using a fascist phrase, still leads the AfD chapter in the state of Thuringia.
Meanwhile, current Chancellor Olaf Scholz is far behind the Conservatives and AfD, polling at around 15%. Scholz oversaw a government that had to deal with massive economic challenges, failed to prevent terrorist attacks, and was consumed by infighting between his liberal and green party coalition partners. Adapting an increasingly tough stance on immigration, Scholz has managed to gain some ground in the polls since his government broke up, yet he is far away from the 25% he achieved at the last election in 2021.
Similarly, the Green party is also polling at around 15%. Part of Scholz’s government, party leader and economics minister Robert Habeck often seemed overwhelmed by the crumbling economy, passing several laws he had to later retract and apologize for, with some calling him the “worst economics minister of all time”. An area the Greens have been more steadfast on, however, is supporting Ukraine, pushing for increased arms deliveries and making Habeck the target of Russian smear campaigns.
So, which of these parties will lead Germany soon? Traditionally, the party that wins the most votes on election day- probably the Conservatives- are the only ones allowed to start looking out for partners to form a government. And Friedrich Merz will likely have the choice of two very different coalition options.
Firstly, there are undeniable similarities between his Conservatives and AfD, on economic policies, social conservatism, and immigration. Together, the parties would have a comfortable majority. All German parties have blocked AfD from any political power during their entire existence, and the Conservatives long participated in this, until voting with AfD on a non-binding law in Parliament last month. Merz’s rivals to the left promptly accused him of testing the waters for a coalition after the election. Social Democrat Rolf Mützenich said Merz had “opened the gates of hell”.
A Conservative-AfD coalition would likely enforce incredibly tough immigration laws, question German support for Ukraine, and possibly have Germany leaving the EU. AfD have proposed mass deportations before, even of people with German citizenship, and Merz’s anti-immigration rhetoric makes some believe he would go along with some of these plans. Could Europe’s biggest economy be cozying up to Trump and his European allies soon?
After the vote, there were protests in all big German cities, and even Angela Merkel came out of retirement to criticize the cooperation. Under pressure, Merz said he had not wanted AfD to vote for his law, and regretted they had done so. In a vote on another law a few days after, a large swath of conservative MPs refused to vote with AfD again, defying Merz. A coalition with AfD, so it seems, would cause a rebellion inside the Conservative Party, and Merz has since promised he will not enter any sort of coalition talks with AfD. There is much anxiety about whether he will stay true to his word.
But the Conservative chairman has another option: A Conservative-led coalition with the Social Democrats and the Greens, nicknamed the “Kenya coalition”. Greens and Conservatives currently form a coalition together in five German states, and Conservatives and Social Democrats have governed Germany together countless times.
However, Merz has criticized the Greens and Social Democrats harshly during the election campaign, accusing them of being responsible for Germany’s dire economic situation. Markus Söder, head of a powerful regional outlet of the Conservatives, has said he would not allow Merz to form a coalition with the Greens, whom he refers to as “enemy number one”. Meanwhile, the Greens and Social Democrats condemned Merz’s controversial statements on immigration, and his votes with AfD, with Scholz saying Merz “often talks nonsense.”
It would not be the first time in Germany, however, that campaign rhetoric is quickly buried after the election, and experts say this coalition is very likely. A “Kenya” government would probably adopt a centrist approach to tackling Germany’s economic recession, while Merz will push to toughen up immigration rules. He and the Greens also agree on increasing German support for Ukraine, and the coalition would likely also further beef up the German army, something Merz has called for.
It is safe to say that much is at stake in Germany amidst the election on the 23rd. Whether Merz will decide to break his promise and negotiate with AfD, possibly forming an unprecedentedly right-wing government, or go for the centrist option with the “Kenya” coalition is anyone’s guess. And, in the two weeks until the election, much can still change.
