Labour slips in local by-elections as Greens and Reform surge

Labour has lost every council seat it has defended in English by-elections over the past month, handing victories to smaller parties, including the Greens and Reform UK – a shift that could be a warning sign in the run-up to local elections in May.

The most recent blow came on Friday morning [11th April], when the Greens won the St Ann’s ward of Haringey – which sits within Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s Westminster constituency. Just days earlier, Reform UK celebrated its first-ever council win in Salford, on Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds’ turf.

Since early March, Labour has lost seats in Neath Port Talbot, Redbridge, Lincoln, Tameside, Salford and now Haringey. The last time the party managed to hold a seat was over a month ago, on 6th March, when it clung on in one Canterbury ward and part of Hounslow (though it lost another seat in the same borough that night).

While these defeats might be small in isolation, some of the victories were claimed in the backyards of senior Cabinet figures – raising concern in the party’s upper ranks just weeks before local elections.

Protest vote, or warning sign?

Labour sources have played down the results, pointing to the nature of low-turnout local elections. But with the party losing ground not to the Conservatives but to a growing collection of smaller rivals, it’s getting harder to dismiss results as routine mid-term turbulence.

The 1st May local elections will be a key moment. Voters across England will decide more than 1,600 council seats and six directly elected mayors, including high-profile races in London, Greater Manchester and the West Midlands. Labour is still expected to perform well overall – especially in mayoral contests where name recognition helps – but if this month’s by-elections are a preview of what’s to come, the party will be looking over its shoulder at more than just the Tories.

Local elections are often used as protest votes, especially when voters feel ignored and frustrated with the state of national politics. But they also serve as a test for parties’ ground game and ability to connect beyond Westminster.

Ruairidh Paton, who won for the Greens in Haringey, said his team knocked on over 2,000 doors during the campaign: “We heard the same story time and again. People are struggling with bills, soaring rent and food prices, and feel abandoned by politicians who don’t care about them.”

The focus on local issues, complemented by energetic campaigning, is proving effective for smaller parties who are increasingly pushing into spaces Labour once held comfortably.

Reform rising: Could Farage’s party overtake the Conservatives – and challenge Labour?

While Labour is defending around 300 council seats in May, the Conservative Party is on the hook for nearly 900 – meaning they could take the biggest hit.

Reform UK may turn out to be the real winners. Earlier this month, the party picked up its first council seat in Salford, and days later took another in Tameside.

While often positioned as a more radical right-wing alternative to the Conservatives, Reform is also gaining traction among disillusioned Labour voters.

Unlike its predecessors – UKIP and the Brexit Party – Reform shows a surprising strength among younger voters, outperforming the Conservatives among men under 30. It also highlights a growing gender divide, with young men now twice as likely to back Reform as women.

Much of the support appears to be driven by Nigel Farage. The Reform leader has been great at capturing public attention and built a large following on social media, particularly TikTok. His style – part grievance, part performance – has helped him cut through to a younger audience who don’t necessarily trust or follow traditional news outlets.

That visibility is paying off. Farage is among the most recognisable and liked politicians among under-30s, ahead of many sitting ministers. While that doesn’t mean all of his followers agree with his policies, it does suggest Reform is tapping into a feeling of political abandonment among younger men who don’t see themselves reflected in either of the main parties.

Similar to other populist movements, Reform UK’s strategy might be short on policy, but it is excellent at discussing controversial issues and generating engagement.

A test for Labour – and local politics

The local elections will be the first big test of all the parties since last July’s general election, which redrew the UK’s political landscape with a new world of multiparty politics.

Undecided and “soft” voters, disillusioned after 15 years of Conservative leadership, helped Labour win the general election. They’re also among those now most frustrated with the perceived lack of change during the government’s first nine months in power.

While Labour may have swept Westminster, that momentum isn’t guaranteed to hold at the local level. Turnout is likely to be lower, especially among younger and less politically engaged voters – groups Labour relies on. Meanwhile, smaller parties with strong local networks are poised to take advantage.

Labour’s national strategy under Starmer has been to look safe, serious and stable – a contrast to years of Conservative chaos. But that cautious approach may not inspire voters when it comes to local issues like rubbish collection, potholes, or council tax.

Reform and the Greens, meanwhile, offer clarity. Whether it’s the Greens’ call for rent controls and climate action, or Reform’s hardline stance on immigration and “woke culture”, both are winning attention – and votes.

That’s not to say either party is poised to take over town halls across the country. Reform still has limited infrastructure, and the Greens often fall short in areas without concentrated support. But in tight local races, even small surges can make a big difference.

For Labour, the challenge now is to prove it hasn’t forgotten the voters who helped put it in power last year. That means showing up locally – not just sending in ministers for photo opportunities, but listening to concerns on the doorstep and delivering results.