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The Final Two: Badenoch and Jenrick remain in race for Tory leader as Cleverly is eliminated

James Cleverly becomes the fourth Tory leadership contender to be eliminated from the race to replace Rishi Sunak, after failing to secure enough support from MPs
Image: The Conservative Party
Image: The Conservative Party

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In today’s final ballot of MPs, James Cleverly received the fewest votes, thus eliminating him from the Tory leadership contest.

It means that either Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader. Conservative party members will be able to vote for their preferred leader from 15th October to 31st October, with the result announced on 2nd November.

In today’s fourth ballot of MPs, the contenders received the following votes:

  • Kemi Badenoch 42
  • Robert Jenrick 41
  • James Cleverly 37

James Cleverly had the momentum after the Tory party conference, coming first in yesterday’s ballot of MPs, seeing an increase of 18 votes. Today’s result therefore came as a huge shock, with many expecting that his place in the final 2 was fairly secure.

It means that Cleverly actually lost 2 supporters overnight, while Tom Tugendhat’s 20 votes from yesterday seem to have been evenly distributed to Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.

Cleverly had not been considered a front runner in the contest before the party conference, but his well-received speech in Birmingham propelled him into pole position. It was rumoured that Cleverly’s supporters may lend their votes to Robert Jenrick in this final vote of MPs, as they perceived him to be an easier opponent, but this may have backfired spectacularly.

Robert Jenrick actually lost votes from the second to third ballot, worrying many in his camp that he would fail to make the final 2, against many prior expectations. In today’s vote, he just beat out rival James Cleverly by a narrow margin of 4 votes.

Kemi Badenoch was considered the favourite for the leadership for much of the campaign, but her divisive comments around the UK’s “excessive” maternity pay and minimum wage certainly damaged her momentum. After yesterday’s ballot, where she placed 3rd out 4 contenders, it was widely expected that she could be eliminated. But today saw a huge reversal of her fortunes, placing 1st in the final ballot of MPs.

James Cleverly has focused his campaign on making the Tories appear “more normal” to win back voters who defected to Reform UK and the Lib Dems. He also pledged to increase defence spending and build more homes if he became Prime Minister.

Badenoch v Jenrick

The final 2 candidates for Tory leader represent the same faction of the Tory party, with Jenrick and Badenoch both considered ardent right-wingers.

In a recent Conservative Home simulation of Tory members conducted from 3 to 4 October, after the party conference, Kemi Badenoch is projected to defeat Jenrick, winning 53 to 33 per cent.

In their respective pitches, Robert Jenrick pledged to build a “new Conservative party”, leave the ECHR and implement an “effective freeze in net migration”.

Badenoch’s leadership pitch has focused on renewing the party for 2030, the first full year the Tories could hypothetically have back in government. She wants to restore small-state Conservativism, take on the “joyless decadence” of identity politics and change the party to appeal more to young people.

The decision now lies with the Conservative party members, who have 2 weeks to cast their ballot in an online vote, before the final result is announced on November 2nd.

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