7 months after Labour’s landslide election victory, voting intention polls have shifted substantially. Politics UK’s Henry Snowdon has compiled an average of the various polls over the month of January to give an accurate picture of how voters view the UK’s main parties in 2025.
National
Lab 🌹 25.7 / (- 2.1) / (- 8.9)
Con 🌳 22 / (- 3.0) / (- 2.4)
LD 🔶 12.4 / (- 0.6) / (- 0.1)
Rfm ➡ 24.9 / (+ 3.7) / (+ 10.2)
Grn 🌍 8.9 / (+ 1.0) / (+ 2.0)
SNP 🎗 2.7 / (+ 0.1) / (+ 0.1)
(+/- Changes Since start of December/Change since GE 2024)
January has seen the continuation of the polling trend of the last few months: the continued decline of Labour and the Conservatives, and the rise of Reform. However, as opposed to last month, Reform is now consistently polling ahead of the Conservative party, and is within a point of Labour. Moreover, there have been multiple polls in the last week that have put Reform in first place.
It is therefore plausible (if not likely) that we may start to soon see Reform constantly polling ahead of the others. For now, however, Labour still retains a narrow lead, and it is the combination of that narrow popular vote lead and the efficiency of the geography of its vote that sees it retain a narrow lead in our Westminster seat projection.
Scotland
Lab 🌹 18.4 / (- 3.5) / (- 16.9)
Con 🌳 13.5 / ( – 0.3) / (+ 0.8)
LD 🔶 11.7 / (+ 2.8) / (+ 2.0)
Rfm ➡ 18 / (+ 3.4) / (+ 11.0)
Grn 🌍 5.2 / (- 0.7) / (+ 1.4)
SNP🎗 31.9 / (- 1.7) / (+ 1.9)
The political landscape of Scotland has changed considerably since the general election (although changes over the last month have been relatively in line with the country). Labour’s more exaggerated collapse in Scotland is due to the fact that its voting block had a much higher contingent of people who “tactically voted” for a variety of reasons that have been made less relevant when Labour got into power.
What is likewise fuelling this fragmentation is that Reform has relatively improved more in Scotland (as a percentage of their 2024 vote share) than in any other region of the country. This fact is all the more (initially) surprising when you consider how bad “Faragist parties” have done here historically (for example, UKIP only won 1.8% of the vote in 2015). With their surge, Reform is now solidly the third largest party in Scotland (in terms of prospective vote share), and is in contention in a few seats in the Central Belt, as many of these seats (such as Bathgate and Linlithgow, Livingstone, Alloa and Grangemouth) are really demographically favourable to them.
Most importantly, this “fragmentation” of the Labour vote means the SNP is gaining the vast majority of seats in Scotland without really increasing their vote share. Lastly, I am projecting that the Lib-Dems (and Conservatives) will benefit from unionist and anti-incumbent tactical voting and therefore not lose any seats.
Wales
Lab 🌹 23.2 / (- 0.5) / (- 14.3)
Con 🌳 17.7 / (- 1.4) / (- 0.5)
LD 🔶 6.2 / (- 3.0) / (- 0.3)
Rfm ➡ 29.6 / (+ 4.7) / (+ 12.7)
Grn 🌍 6.4 / (- 0.8) / (+ 1.7)
Plaid 🌼 15.7 / (+ 0.7) / (+ 0.9)
Nowhere is the Reform surge and Labour collapse bigger than in Wales. Reform has topped the last 5 sub-polls, and extended their lead. Reform’s wide lead will result in a sweep across South Wales and wins across much of North Wales The only place where Labour may hang on is in Cardiff – but even then, not comfortably.
The Conservatives will likely do better and win seats in more rural “traditionally conservative voting” areas of Wales. Nevertheless, Reform will still be a looming threat in these areas. Plaid will win Welsh-speaking areas.
London
Lab 🌹 31.6 / (- 7.9) / (-11.4)
Con 🌳 21.8 / (+ 0.2) / (+ 1.2)
LD 🔶13.3 / (+ 2.7) / (+ 2.3)
Rfm ➡ 19 / (+ 1.6) / (+ 10.3)
Grn 🌍 10.2 / (+ 0.2) / (+ 0.2)
The Conservatives are holding up better in London than in other parts of the country. They have actually improved their regional vote share since GE 2024. What makes it even more surprising is that they already over-performed in London (relative to Tory results in the rest of the nation) in 2024. This overperformance has resulted in their relative polling results in London being better right now than it was at any election this century.
In terms of the constituency dynamic, Labour’s collapse and the conservative steadfastness will result in Conservative gains in west London and outer London, both former strongholds. Reform will challenge many of these locations. However, their vote share is more spread out than the Conservatives’, leading to only two gains in Hornchurch and Upminster and Dagenham and Rainham. Outside of these vicinities, Labour will hold on throughout most of London because of the efficiency of their vote. However, I expect them to lose a few seats ,with high proportions of Muslim voters going to Gaza/Muslim Independents. Although I wouldn’t predict any Green gains at the moment, there are some seats that I believe will be a very close call.
North East
Lab 🌹 33.2 / (- 2.6) / (- 9.6)
Con 🌳 18.7 / (- 3.7) / (- 1.8)
LD 🔶 10 / (+ 2.3) / ( + 2.6)
Rfm ➡ 27 / (+ 2.9) / (+ 9.8)
Grn 🌍 8.4 / (nc) / (+ 2.3)
I expect the biggest Reform gains in what many may define as “traditional red wall” areas: South Yorkshire north of Sheffield, former northeast mining areas, and many large towns surrounding Manchester and Liverpool. These seats will nearly all be gained from Labour. Labour has been losing support in these areas since 1997, and although they won them back in the last election I view this swing as an aberration.
I continue to believe these areas will be some of the most likely to swing to Reform, especially when you consider that Reform already established itself as the second largest party in many of these seats. I do believe Labour will be able to comfortably hold on in most larger urban areas, as their leads are too large and their opponents would be more fragmented. The Lib Dems will hold their 4 northern fiefdoms, and may even finally win back Sheffield Hallam.
South
Lab 🌹 20.2 / (- 2.8) / (- 5.7)
Con 🌳 25.6 / (- 3.4) / (- 4.4)
LD 🔶 16.2 / ( + 0.4) / (- 1.0)
Rfm ➡ 26 / (+ 2.5) / (+ 8)
Grn 🌍 10.2 / (+ 2.1) / (+ 4.4)
I think the Lib Dems will continue to greatly benefit from non-incumbency and keep the majority of their seats (although their electoral strategy makes the potential for growth limited). They may be harmed by a decline in anti-Tory tactical voting, but as the Tories are polling 4.5 points worse than GE 24, I don’t think this decline in tactical voting will be enough to cause significant seat losses.
The Greens are poised to make gains in Bristol. The last election showed us that they can overcome “low party status” in areas where they have good party infrastructure and strong campaigns. Reform will see sporadic gains throughout the south, with the strongest gains in the Essex/Kent coastal area.
These areas are some of the most demographically favourable areas of the country that were heavily Brexit voting. Labour will be in trouble everywhere, but should likely hold on in the urban cores.
Midlands
Lab 🌹 25.7 / (- 1.8) / (- 8.9)
Con🌳 25.3 / (- 0.7) / (- 3.2)
LD 🔶 9.2 / (- 0.6) / (+ 1.5)
Rfm ➡ 28.1 / (+ 4.0) / (+ 9.6)
Grn 🌍 9.6 / ( – 1.6) / (+ 3.2)
Similar prediction to other English regions, with Reform performing well in large towns, Labour holding on in many urban areas, and the Conservatives regaining seats in the rural vicinities. (Although Reform will do well in many rural seats here as well.)
Birmingham will be really interesting. If a coherent leftist/Muslim party forms (I believe one will) they may very well be able to win up to 7 seats.
The Party Leaders
Party Leader Net Approval Ratings / (Changes with End of December)
Keir Starmer (-37.4)/ (-4.6)
Kemi Badenoch (-16.6) / (-5.7)
Nigel Farage (-11.4) / (+2.1)
It was another bad month for The Prime Minister and the Leader of The Opposition, as both saw their favourability ratings plummet. For context, Starmer only has slightly higher favourability ratings than Rishi Sunak did 213 days after taking office and is doing worse than every other prime minister this century.
While the net approval rating isn’t terrible for the leader of the opposition, the fact that a still low approval rating is combined with high levels of apathy towards her should be cause for concern for the Conservatives. Only half of all voters have an opinion on her, as opposed to ~70% for Nigel Farage, and ~80% for The Prime minister. After four months, voters clearly aren’t hearing her message – and what they do hear, they don’t seem to like.
Who’s voting for Who?
While the net approval ratings of Reform have continuously increased since the general election, it is worth noting that this net increase has come almost entirely by way of a decrease in the party’s disapproval rating. Historically Reform, (and the Brexit party before that, and UKIP before that) have always had incredibly high disapproval ratings. This change signifies that the party is successfully “detoxifying” its brand image, which is a crucial step to take for the party if they are to succeed in its goal of replacing the Conservatives as the main party of the right.
In the graph above, each colour indicates what party voters voted for in 2024, while the individual column indicates who they plan to vote for now. Therefore, this graph allows for a more detailed visualization of what specific kinds of voters are planning to switch party preferences in the next election. What’s most stunning is how Labour is losing support fairly evenly to each party. This presents an electoral challenge
to Labour as it shows that the party is losing very different types of voters – meaning that efforts to appeal to lost voters will have to be more targeted and atomized.
