Keir Starmer’s Labour government has been called into question after a think tank poll reveals that if an election was held today, Labour would lose virtually all of their gains from the Summer election.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK are also seen to be continuing their rapid growth, polling at 21 per cent of the national vote share and gaining 72 seats – a large jump from the five seats and 14 per cent share they received in the previous general election.
Additionally, the poll points to the Conservatives winning 222 seats, just six behind Labour’s expected 228, with the Liberal Democrats on 58, the SNP on 37 and the Greens on 2.
According to the analysis from think tank More in Common, Labour’s triumphant 2024 retaking of the “red wall” in England’s midlands and North would be almost entirely reversed with large swathes of the region being retaken by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, while many are flipped to Reform.
The results point towards a potentially difficult future for the incumbent government as a future general election with these standings would create an extremely narrow margin of victory that could necessitate a coalition to ensure a functioning majority.
Reform’s rise to the third largest party means that the Conservatives would struggle to raise a fighting opposition as both parties attempt to differentiate themselves and regain right-wing voters. Additionally, the Liberal Democrats relative size makes them a difficult partner on the left of the Tories, as well as posing issues for Keir Starmer, as they offer a centre-left option for wavering Labour voters. The retaking of many seats in Scotland by the SNP would pose issues for both Labour and the Tories, as they are unlikely to cooperate with the major unionist parties.
In a huge political blow for Starmer, a number of cabinet ministers would also lose their seats to Reform candidates, including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband.
The analysis by More in Common has been created through a method of statistical modelling called multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP). The model is able to use large national samples and break the results down into smaller constituency based results. This is particularly useful in first-past-the-post electoral systems like the UK’s, as the national vote share does not determine the outcome of an election, instead results are based on the amount of constituencies held.
MRP’s work by surveying large national populations and taking a number of additional influential demographics, which may include age, income and education and past voting behaviours. These results are then combined with official data on the number of people living in each constituency and their demographics to estimate how local populations will behave.
MRP polls have gained popularity following accurate predictions from YouGov MRP’s of the 2017 hung parliament, despite many other polling methods predicting a Conservative majority, and the prediction of a 2019 Conservative majority, despite underestimating the landslide.
Luke Tryl, Executive Director of More in Common speaks about the difficulties faced by the two largest parties, the Conservatives and Labour in the era of the growing right-wing popularity of Reform, and the centrist Liberal Democrats renewed popularity saying: “The First Past the Post system is struggling to deal with [the] degree of fragmentation, which is why our model shows so many seats on a three-way knife edge, and many being won on exceptionally small shares of the vote”. Rather than being split between Labour and Conservatives, voters are now flushed with choices and the FPTP system is “struggling to deal” with this new reality.
The system has been criticised for generating disproportionate results as it facilitates a winner takes all result, despite the parties being extremely close in some constituencies. Labour winning a landslide majority in 2024 (411 out of 650 seats) despite receiving just 34 per cent of the popular vote has been criticised for not representing vast numbers of the population. The results for smaller parties were also disproportionate, with the Liberal Democrats winning 72 seats with 12 per cent of the vote, far ahead of Reform UK’s 5 seats on 14 per cent.
The results of More in Common’s poll are in line with the growing discontentment surrounding Keir Starmer’s government. The latest poll from Ipsos reveals that 61% of Brits are dissatisfied with the Prime Minister, his worst performance since becoming Labour leader. A different MRP poll by JL Partners found similar results with Labour winning 256 seats, losing 155, while the Conservatives are polled at 208, Reform on 71, the Liberal Democrats on 66, and the SNP on 6.
Keir Starmer and his Labour government have faced backlash over various unpopular decisions, including introducing means testing for winter fuel payments, refusing compensation for WASPI women, as well as the freebies row that led to the resignation of his Chief of Staff, Sue Gray.
JL Partners share the same concern as More in Common saying that these results would “make governing almost impossible for any of the parties, sending the country into an unsure future”.
However, experts explain that “they have certainly got time” to turn the polls around, with the next election scheduled for 2029, and it is not unusual for Prime Ministers and governments to fluctuate greatly in popularity. Keiran Pedley, Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said that while some leaders have a fairly standard and uniform approval ratings, others are “not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”
Additionally, Luke Tryl expects that the public is giving the new government more grace than the polls may show, saying that in focus groups carried out by More in Common, people are tending to “give them the benefit of the doubt”, and are “willing to give them a chance” despite some not being happy with their decisions so far.
