Although the EU has supported Bosnia and Herzegovina since its independence in the 1990s as a result of the collapse of Yugoslavia, it must stop playing a double-sided game with Bosnia. Although Dodik has been sanctioned by the international community due to his secessionist threats, the EU has continued to tolerate Dodik’s collaborators in the Croatia and Serbian governments. With the national government of Bosnia and Herzegovina issuing a national arrest warrant for Milorad Dodik on Wednesday [12th March], this is the perfect time for the EU to show it fully supports Bosnia’s independence.
Sandwiched between Croatia and Bosnia throughout its history, Bosnia’s independence and right of self-determination has always been a challenge. The 1995 Dayton Agreement, agreed by all ethnic groups in the country, as well as the US, Britain, Germany, and France, separates Bosnia into ethnic groups, as follows:
The problems of deepening the divide in a multi-ethnic state with history such as Bosnia’s is that division can only bring instability. Bosnia functions as a federal state, with some degree of autonomy for all the administrative regions. It is however difficult to reconcile the Serbian-speaking community with Bosnian Muslims, considering the events in Srebrenica, when the Serbian state sought to create a “Greater Serbia”, based on ethno-religious-nationalist criteria. As such, they mercilessly killed more than 8,000 Bosnian Muslims, whose only crime had been to not be Orthodox Serbs. In such a tense context, where many Bosnians are still waiting for war criminals to be charged for their crimes – peace was always going to be difficult.
Power is a dangerous thing – the longer a leader remains in power, the tighter they grasp onto it. No different is Milorad Dodik: a man, not altogether committed to democracy, who has been either PM or President of the Republika Srpska (with a brief hiatus in the mid-2000s) since 1998.
Although initially considered as moderate by Western powers in his beginnings, he increasingly steered towards Serbian ethno-nationalism. Opposition to that shift from the international community has consisted of only words, not actions. This led him to continue his provocations, in an attempt to secede and join Serbia.
Republika Srpska secession would, potentially, be a dangerous catalyst for a return of conflict to the states of former Yugoslavia. And regardless of whether or not that nightmare came to pass, a secession would greatly embolden Serbia’s Aleksander Vučić- which is not a desirable outcome. For if Dodik likes Putin, Vučić loves him. If Dodik has authoritarian tendencies, Vucic is significantly more inclined against democracy. Vučić is Dodik’s bigger and nastier twin.
Dodik has been close to Vučić for a while and is ready to do anything for his approval. This need for approval from Belgrade has led Dodik to denying several war crimes across Bosnia, including the infamous Srebrenica. This is significant, especially considering the UN recently accepted an international day to be held every year in remembrance of the victims of the Srebrenica genocide. In April 2019, Dodik called the massacre a ‘myth’. The fact that six years on, he still remains in a position of power, is shocking to say the least. In most cases, he got away with his provocation by paying a minor fine. The fact he was able to do this is nothing less than a failure of the system.
It is impossible to separate Dodik from his supporters. While the US has imposed sanctions on Dodik since 2017 for his attempts to break away from the Dayton Agreement, Trump’s administration has shown support for the Serbian Vučić regime. He is Dodik’s biggest hope, aside from Russian president Vladimir Putin. Just two days ago, Donald Trump Jr went to Serbia to visit Vučić, in which it was reported by the New York Times that the pair talked about future projects. This comes at a time when Serbia has been protesting against Vučić’s regime since November. Vučić himself often proclaimed his support for Dodik’s secessionist moves, criticizing international sanctions imposed against him. There is no doubt that it is impossible to criticize Dodik without criticising his supporters in Washington and Belgrade.
The EU also, have failed to stand up agains Vučić and Dodik. Slovenian EU commissioner for enlargement, Marta Kos, published an open letter, shared on Twitter, that received backlash as she never directly accused the Vučić regime of its authoritarian measures. At the same time, the EU has reacted through EUFOR, sending troops from other EU countries to ensure peace may be kept. This is sending mixed signals to the Bosnian people, who see an EU ready to militarily support their country, but that also fails to take action against his biggest supporter.
This is also similar to Bosnia’s neighbors. Croatian PM Andrej Plenković has always supported Bosnia’s EU accession, but has rarely directly accused Dodik of his wrongdoings directly. When Dodik was sentenced by Bosnian courts two weeks ago, Plenković evaluated it was more important to call for “lowering tensions”, instead of naming the provocator responsible for those tensions – Milorad Dodik. A majority of Plenković’s relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina have centered around protecting the ethnic Croatians living in Bosnia. Understanding Croatia’s interests in the country has become more difficult since Zoran Milanović’s accession to power as Croatia’s President, as Plenković has accused Milanović of destabilizing relations between the two countries. Considering the frequent struggles with Dodik and Republika Srpska, figuring out what Croatia wants from Bosnia is, understandably, the last of Bosnia’s problems.
Combatting Dodik and his ilk has always been challenging for ethnic Bosnians, even for those in power. Dodik holds a strong position of power that he has consolidated across the last three decades, and it is obvious he has no interest in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This means that whoever tried to sanction Dodik through regular actions – the higher courts in Bosnia – was subject to intimidation in all forms. We saw this earlier this week, when Bosnian Serb opposition leader ,Nebojša Vukanović’s car was burned after a heated National Assembly session. As the opposition leader he has been frequently intimidated by Dodik’s clique.
Dodik’s sentencing in late February provided a unique opportunity. Two weeks later, his arrest warrant was issued. This is a chance for Bosnia’s international partners to provide authentic support, instead of empty words. Republika Srpska has tried to stop police from entering the region’s territory, in an attempt to protect Dodik. Until now, Bosnia has not asked help from its European partners, in fear of consequence for involved individuals. The Srebrenica Memorial Center has temporarily closed down for the first time in its history due to safety fears. Dodik himself reacted to his sentencing by claiming that “there is no Bosnia and Herzegovina”, making it clear he would never respect the Dayton Agreement or any constitution.
It is in the EU’s interest to protect Bosnia by helping to arrest Dodik. He is set to meet Putin in Moscow next week. If he cannot be arrested in Bosnia, the EU should issue an international warrant and cooperate with institutions like Interpol to ensure he cannot remain a free man. The Bosnian people have been through a lot under his regime, and deserve to be protected. If the EU is Bosnia’s ally (as it showed with EUFOR), it shouldn’t be too much to ask for.
