The Labour victory in the GE echoed the last time the party won from the opposition benches, with Blair spearheading the modernisation that the party desperately needed after 18 years in opposition. Keir Starmer faced a similar challenge of modernising the party after its reputation was subsequently damaged by the perception of incompetence with the economy after 2008 and the perception of being out of touch and too left-wing under Corbyn.
The similarities are staggering, as both Blair and Starmer confronted a Conservative Party that mishandled the economy and was so ideologically and institutionally confined that it failed to realize how out of touch with the electorate it had become. The Conservatives went through difficult times between 1997 and 2005, and the question for the party now is: Will history repeat itself for the Conservatives?
There have been claims likening the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, to Margaret Thatcher. She is the fourth female Conservative leader and shares qualities similar to her predecessor’s aggressive approach and steely determination, which, thus far, has not been successful at PMQs. Her talking points on immigration, public services, and the economy fail to resonate, given that she is as much to blame for her party’s failures in government as she resided in the cabinet when net migration levels hit an all-time high of 764,000 and welcomed relaxed immigration rules in 2018 with the removal of a cap on visas for students and high-skilled workers.
However, while Kemi has frequently been compared to Thatcher, the longest-serving Prime Minister of the 20th century, I liken her to William Hague. Hague took over a Conservative Party that had lost more MPs than it had sent to parliament in the 1997 election and was out of touch with the electorate. Hague’s strategy aimed to shift the party further to the right, emphasising Eurosceptic beliefs instead of recognising that the average voter was left of the Conservative Party, and whose key priorities included health, education, and welfare.
The failure to modernise the party and gain the wider electorate’s support and instead rely merely on the Conservative Party members and its ‘core voters’ caused Hague to lose the 2001 election, much like in 1997, gaining only one net gain in seats. I fear that if Kemi does not steer clear of Labour’s misstep after 1979 and the Conservative error after 1997—believing you can win without change —she may face a similar outcome.
Kemi must understand that the Conservatives lost the GE, not because they were too left-wing but rather because they were too right-wing, with hard-line legal caps to tackle immigration and further tax cuts undermining our underfunded public services. The party governed incompetently, was constantly mired in sleaze and scandal, and slowly lost the electorate’s trust. In an age where the average voter cares more for good quality and funded public services, rather than tax cuts, she must escape the conservative perception of antipathy towards fully funded public services and a welfare state.
